Chile’s most tense presidential campaign so far, in the 21st century, ended with the triumph of leftist Gabriel Boric. Although he was the most voted candidate in the first round, the conservative alternative, José Antonio Kast, could not repeat the feat on the ballot.
The left is once again rosy in Latin America, with important victories ranging from Mexico to Argentina. These are, on the contrary, hard times for liberals and conservatives. Overall, they have been able to do little to stem the "pink tide" that continues to hit the region.
Of these counted achievements, the first came from ideologically moderate figures such as Mauricio Macri in Argentina or Sebastián Piñera in Chile. But these governments quickly became unpopular and were again displaced by the left. For this reason, many sympathizers of right-wing currents attributed the failure to "lukewarmness." They argued that what is necessary is a kind of "fire against fire." Confront a populist left with its own populists.
However, that strategy has not been very effective either. Kast’s defeat in Chile is the most recent sample. Keiko Fujimori was also unable to fight her socialist opponent, Pedro Castillo. The only right-wing radical who has been successful as a presidential candidate has been Jair Bolsonaro. But Bolsonaro has not been able to consolidate a movement of strong ideological convictions. All the polls indicate that he would be harshly defeated in the 2022 elections by former president Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva.
Why is this happening?
In fact, betting on populism was always a very risky strategy for the Latin American right. This is due to the demographic profile of the region, especially in socio-economic matters.
Although there is no universally accepted definition of "populism", this phenomenon always includes a polarizing discourse that divides societies into antagonistic camps. Depending on the type of ideology of the populist movement, the exploited social divisions vary. Left-wing populism leans toward socio-economic divisions. "Rich against poor". The right-wing, on the other hand, generally prefers cultural divisions. "Conservatives Against Progressives".
Latin America, with its strong socio-economic inequalities, is much more fertile ground for populism on the left than it is on the right. The message of class antagonism sticks more easily. It is not that in Latin America there are no conservatives or people highly interested in causes like feminism and the LGBTI movement. But the average voter is not very aware of such matters. His concerns are more material.
There is no easy answer to the great question that the Latin American right is asking: How to be a lasting mass current? But the truth is that the populist attempt is not bearing the promised results. And despite all its failures, the "lukewarm" right-wing has had more success in presidential elections. The key could then be to find a speech that excites without going to extremes.
